Alexander Garcia

Researcher

alexander.garcia @NOSPAMingv.it

My main interests include Bayesian data analysis, Stochastic modelling in Geophysics, and computational methods for stochastic processes. My research activities are mainly centered in the use of Bayesian methods applied to Inference problems, inverse problem in Geophysics, Extreme Value analyses, multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment.

Research interests:

Stochastic modelling
Bayesian data analysis
Inverse theory in geophysics
Multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment
Uncertainty analysis

Research.

Volcanology and volcano geophysics

Overview:

Bayesian inference is the process of fitting a probability model to a data set and summarizing the results by a probability distribution on the parameters of the model and on unobserved quantities such as predictions for new observations (e.g. Gelman et al. 2004). I am interested in the implementation of Bayesian solutions for the determination of model parameter values in geophysical problems.

Main activities:

Bayesian Inference
Non linear inversion
Bayesian model selection (Bayes factor)

Publications... More details...

Extreme value analysis

Overview:

Extreme Value Theory is an approach used for the estimation of extreme values; the distinguishing feature of an extreme value analysis is the objective to quantify the stochastic behaviour of a process at unusually large (or small) levels (e.g., Coles 2001). In fact, it aims at deriving a probability distribution of events from the tail of a probability distribution, that is, at the far end of the upper or lower ranges of the probability distributions. It has a wide spectrum of applicability in the assessment of natural hazards.

Main activities:

Bayesian inference of the parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution
Non-stationary Extreme value analysis
Analysis of climate-related hazards

Publications...

Stochastic modelling

Overview:

We use stochastic models as mathematical structures to describe the response of a system and use them as a tool in the forecasting of event occurrences. On the other hand, we perform sensitivity analyses by introducing random effects to the input parameters of physical models to assess the output variability and estimate uncertainties.

Main activities:

Renewal models, model selection and forecasting
Stochastic modelling of seismic sequences (e.g. ETAS)
Random effects in physical models (experience using static stress transfer models)

More details...

Publications...

Multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment:

Overview:

The transition from single- to multi-risk assessment implies a shift from a hazard-centred perspective that characterises the single-risk assessment, to a territorial-centred one. Our research in this field is oriented towards (1) defining harmonisation mechanisms in order to make multiple risk comparable, and (2) exploring and assessing possibile interactions.

Main activities:

Risk harmonization
Structuring scenarios of cascading effects
Probabilistic assessment of cascading effects scenarios

Publications...

BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS

EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS

STOCHASTIC MODELLING

MULTI-HAZARD AND MULTI-RISK ASSESSMENT

Publications.

Main Publications

see the Citation report: ( Google Scholar ) and ( Scopus )

Preprints available in ResearchGate (click here)...

Journal papers (Peer-reviewed):

Book chapters (peer-reviewed):

Conference proceedings (peer-reviewed):

Science divulgation:

Abstracts, Short communications:

Garcia-Aristizabal A, Bucchignani E, Marzocchi W, Uhinga G (2013). A discussion on assessing climate-related hazards and uncertainties considering scenarios of climate-change: Examples and applications to some African areas. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH ABSTRACTS, vol. 15, ISSN: 1607-7962
Garcia-Aristizabal A, Di Ruocco A, Marzocchi W, Gasparini P (2013). Assessing cascading effects in multi-hazard and multi-risk analyses: Examples from Naples, Italy. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH ABSTRACTS, vol. 15, ISSN: 1607-7962
Garcia-Aristizabal, A, Gasparini P, Di Ruocco A, Marzocchi W, Ambara G, Uhinga G, Tonye E (2013). The CLUVA project approach: multiple climate-related hazards and multiple vulnerabilities in a multi-risk analysis. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH ABSTRACTS, vol. 15, ISSN: 1607-7962
Garcia-Aristizabal, A, Di Ruocco A, Bucchignani E, De Paola F, Jalayer F, Kombe W, Uhinga G, Marzocchi W, Gasparini P (2012). An integrated multi-risk framework considering climate change impacts on African cities. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH ABSTRACTS, vol. 14, ISSN: 1607-7962
Rowe CA, Garcia A, Garcia-Aristizabal A, White R (2006). Multiple denoising and classification methods for improving seismic surveillance: Applications at Guagua Pichincha, Soufriere Hills and Redoubt Volcano. SEISMOLOGICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, vol. 77, p. 240, ISSN: 0895-0695
Alvarado A, Segovia M, Molina I, Garcia-Aristizabal A, Yepes H (2003). Could the increase in the volcanic activity be triggered by increase of the convergence rate of the Nazca plate and the Andean block? The case of northern Ecuadorian volcanoes. SEISMOLOGICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, vol. 74, p. 214, ISSN: 0895-0695
Garcia-Aristizabal A, Ruiz M, Yepes H, Molina I, Alvarado A, Segovia M, Jacome L, Viracucha D (2003). Seismic activity associated with the cyclic lava dome growth and destruction during the 1999 Guagua Pichincha volcano eruption. SEISMOLOGICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, vol. 74, p. 199, ISSN: 0895-0695
Garcia-Aristizabal, A, Ramon P, Yepes H, Alvarado A, Segovia M, Hall M, Mothes P (2003). Seismic activity related to the sudden 2002 eruption of El Reventador volcano. SEISMOLOGICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, vol. 74, p. 214, ISSN: 0895-0695

Contact.

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna

Via Donato Creti 12, 40128 Bologna, Italia

(+39) 051 41 51 465

alexander.garcia @NOSPAMingv.it

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